EFFECTIVE: January 29, 2026 at 8:45am

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🔶 MEDIUM RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW  FEBRUARY 5–9 — TECHNICAL, LONG‑RANGE OUTLOOK
Confidence is gradually increasing that the 1st or 2nd week of February may feature a notably active and potentially impactful winter pattern across the region. While conditions remain quiet in the near term, the broader synoptic setup is signaling a meaningful shift toward a colder, storm‑producing regime.

Long‑range ensemble guidance continues to highlight the development of a progressive Alberta clipper track, with the potential for two to three fast‑moving shortwaves diving southeast through the Great Lakes between February 5th and 9th. This type of pattern is known for producing frequent, quick‑hitting snow events, and the atmospheric ingredients appear supportive of that outcome.

Under a typical clipper setup, individual systems often generate 2–4 inches of snow. However, this particular pattern carries a higher‑end risk for 6 inches or more with one or more events. Several factors are contributing to this elevated potential:

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• In other words, the environment will be primed for high‑efficiency snowfall, where relatively small amounts of available moisture can translate into significant totals.​​

• Efficient dendritic growth zones, allowing even modest moisture to produce rapid accumulation

• A deep, entrenched Arctic air mass already in place, dramatically increasing snow‑to‑liquid ratios

• A tight thermal gradient enhancing lift along the clipper track

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It’s important to emphasize that we are still several days out, and model spread remains considerable. Track, timing, and intensity will all need refinement as we get closer. That said, the overall pattern strongly favors an active stretch, with the potential for multiple accumulating snow events and at least a medium‑level risk for heavy snowfall somewhere within the region.

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We’ll continue to monitor trends closely and provide more detailed updates as confidence increase Stronger-than-normal vorticity maxima embedded within the northern stream

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